’12 Oscar Prediction Throwdown
Lee McKinstry
Arts & Entertainment Editor
All I have to say is that I’m confident in my predictions. Very confident. McGovern better watch his back, because McKinstry always knows who brings home the gold. That shiny, sparkling, exquisitely Adonis-shaped gold.
Best Picture
Will Win:“The Artist”: Count on the little-French-movie-that-could take it all the way Feb. 26. It doesn’t hurt that the film was given incredible reviews across the board and that the potentially cutesy novelty factor of producing a silent film in the 21st century doesn’t fall into gimmick territory.
Should Win: “The Descendants”
Understated without being pretentious, I was totally transfixed by this portrait of a man helplessly beginning to unravel. Too many people will dismiss its quiet realism in favor of something more stylized or plot-driven. It proves you don’t need melodrama to be memorable.
Best Actor
Will Win: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”: He’s riding high off wins at the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes. He’s got Old Hollywood looks that perfectly complement his film and is a seasoned actor in his native France, long unrecognized, who hits a career high as a has-been movie star.
Should Win: George Clooney “The Descendants”: For a while, I thought no one could beat Clooney, who is so on top of his game as the harried, mourning dad Matt in “The Descendants” that you almost forget that he’s an international sex symbol known for his command of chill. Running down the street in loafers, trying to regain a drop of dignity after he finds out his wife has been having an affair, he is a man possessed.
Best Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, “The Help”
Should Win: Viola Davis: She’s picked up steam from the SAGs, where both she and her cast were recognized for their acting work in “The Help”. I think this will carry her all the way to the Oscars, despite the amount of controversy her film has generated.
She really deserves it. Davis carries “The Help,” which verges a little too close to Hallmark territory for my taste. She blazes with silent anger and deep empathy, and never falls into the blatantly one-dimensional character hole screenwriters sometimes give African-American actresses to work out of. Here’s hoping this performance changes that.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christopher Plummer “Beginners”
Should Win: Christopher Plummer: : He’s won almost every award he’s been nominated for, including the Golden Globe, the Critic’s Choice Award and the SAG. Case closed.
This was hands-down my favorite performance of the year. Plummer’s cancer-ridden octogenarian coming out is hilarious, cunning, sweet, cruel and so subtle that you feel like you’re watching a documentary. After acting for 60 years, it’s ridiculous to me that this man has only two nominations.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”: Spencer has also picked up almost every award she’s been nominated for this season. I don’t get it. She was ok.
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy “Bridesmaids”: The best performer in this category is breakout star Melissa McCarthy. Her dolphin-communicating, fight-club loving Megan, who she described as “a lady Guy Fieri,” steers “Bridesmaids” out of chick flick land. It’s a comedy that gets right what many don’t — portraying women’s relationships honestly.
John McGovern
Viewpoints Editor
Most people at this time are making prop bets for the Super Bowl. The real gamblers know the big money lies in predicting the votes of Hollywood’s old, decrepit elite. Look for McKinstry crying in Lowry Pit later this month.
Best Picture
Will Win: “The Artist”
Should Win: The Artist: The minute I left the theater I knew this was an Oscar voter’s dream. A movie about the glory of movies, a nostalgic throwback to an archaic era with humor, romance and drama. Sure, it has an incredibly basic storyline, and many supporting characters are essentially one-dimensional. That such a feel good film can succeed to entertain in a format almost a century old invigorates an emotional response the audience cannot suppress after the credits roll.
Best Actor
Will Win: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Should Win: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”: George Clooney will win top honors at some point, however it shouldn’t be for playing a rich Causcasian male in Hawaii. Apologies, but at times I didn’t know if I was watching “The Descendants” or “Ocean’s 12.” Gary Oldman and Brad Pitt had powerful roles in their respective films, but nothing on screen screams their performances were a career role. Jean Dujardin took a character with exactly one line of spoken dialogue and expressed a broader range of emotion than the talkies nominated.
Best Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, “The Help”
Should Win: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”: “The Help” will likely do quite well for itself at the ceremony, and there is potential to sweep many major awards. The hype continues to build, as the SAG awards gave Davis and cast member Octavia Spencer honors last week. I thought the more captivating performance came from Golden Globe winner Williams, and initially I believed the Academy would flock to a biopic over “The Help., which they should have.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Should Win: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”: An aging actor with no Oscar wins over a prolific career can steamroll through the awards season at ease (see Alan Arkin for “Little Miss Sunshine,” Morgan Freeman for “Million Dollar Baby”). While it’s disappointing to see an actor win simply due to a past of neglect on the podium, however Plummer deserves the attention this year. Kenneth Branagh and Jonah Hill did very well in their respective films, however Hill is too unproven and Branagh is going to be around for a long time to come.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Should Win: Decline to give an award: I never really know how to predict this category; Octavia Spencer has the buzz and is slowly building her trophy collection, so I’ll pick her. The other nominees did fine in their roles, but that’s it — fine. They filled a necessary spot, but their movies do not hinge on their performance. McCarthy is the apparent fan favorite, and there’s an incredibly compelling argument the disdain the Oscars have for comedies needs to stop at some point. Yet a win for the “Bridesmaids” star in this historically chaotic category will act as the Academy stifling legitimate comedies by claiming every few years some comedian gets lucky and grabs a statue. Whoever wins, we lose.